The 2026 awards season kicked into high gear this week, folks. After the Gotham Awards got the party started, two of the most crucial early precursors—the American Film Institute (AFI) and the National Board of Review (NBR)—stepped up to the podium and showed their cards. These groups don't mess around with lengthy nomination lists; they just straight-up name their picks for the best of the year. AFI sticks to a clean top 10 for movies, while NBR hands out a whole slate of awards, including a single Best Film. For the movies and the folks behind them, this week was like the first big test on the road to the Oscars, and the results are in. The message is clear: the race is on, and a pack of contenders has already started to pull away from the rest.

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The Power Players: Films That Made Both Lists

When both AFI and NBR give you a nod, you're doing something right. It's like getting a thumbs-up from two very different but equally respected teachers. This year, eight films managed that impressive feat, instantly marking them as the ones to beat. Let's meet the club:

  • Avatar: Fire & Ash 🎬

  • Frankenstein 🧟‍♂️

  • Jay Kelly

  • Marty Supreme

  • One Battle After Another

  • Sinners

  • Train Dreams

  • Wicked: For Good ✨

This list answers some early-season whispers. Worries about "Avatar fatigue"? Seems overblown. Concerns that Wicked: For Good's reviews weren't as magical as the first film? Apparently, the Academy voters don't care. Netflix, meanwhile, is playing the long game. Instead of putting all its eggs in one basket, it has three strong contenders here—Frankenstein, Train Dreams, and Jay Kelly—all trending in the right direction.

The Standouts and the Surprises

Within that elite group, a few films are shouting a little louder. One Battle After Another didn't just make both lists; NBR crowned it as their Best Film of the Year. That's a massive boost. Sinners, another early favorite, solidified its position. And Marty Supreme? Its momentum just keeps building, like a snowball rolling downhill.

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But then there were the surprises, the kind that make you go "hmm." Hamnet, the undisputed darling of the fall festivals, was expected to be a lock. Yet, it only made AFI's list, missing out on NBR's double recognition. It's by no means out of the race—far from it—but its competitors are not waiting around. It's a reminder that in awards season, early buzz doesn't always translate to sustained momentum.

Other films found recognition on just one list, keeping their hopes alive:

Film Recognized By Status
Bugonia AFI Still in the hunt
F1 NBR Still in the hunt
Rental Family NBR Still in the hunt
Wake Up Dead Man NBR Still in the hunt

The International Intrigue

Here's where things get tricky. The Oscars have a truly global voting body now, and international films are a constant threat to crash the Best Picture party. These early lists, though, don't give a clear signal on who's leading that charge. AFI, by its nature, focuses on American film, but it did give a Special Award to It Was Just an Accident, the Palme d'Or winner from Iranian master Jafar Panahi. A nice gesture, but not a Top 10 spot.

NBR, which has a dedicated Top 5 International Films category, passed on Panahi's film. Instead, it named The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. So, we have three heavyweight international contenders—It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and Sentimental Value—all jostling for position, with none establishing a clear lead. It's a three-way tie, and the next few months will be crucial.

The Notable Absences

Of course, for every film celebrated, several were left on the outside looking in. Their absence speaks volumes, at least for now. Some big names that missed both the AFI and NBR lists include:

  • No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook's Korean thriller) – Its early steam seems to have... dissipated? 🚂

  • A House of Dynamite (Kathryn Bigelow)

  • Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper)

  • The Testament of Ann Lee (Mona Fastvold)

For these films, the path to the Oscars just got steeper. They'll need a major surge of support in the coming weeks from critics' groups and guild awards to thrust themselves back into the conversation. Can they do it? Stranger things have happened in Hollywood.

So, where does this leave us? The 2026 Oscar race has its first clear frontrunners, a bunch of strong contenders, and a whole lot of unanswered questions. The films that scored double recognition have a leg up, no doubt about it. But the season is a marathon, not a sprint. Alliances will shift, new narratives will emerge, and there's always room for a surprise or two. One thing's for sure: the battle for Best Picture is officially underway, and it's already one heck of a story.