I have spent the last few months tracking the 2026 Oscar race, and no film has fascinated me more than Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another. According to Metacritic, it is the best reviewed movie of 2025 so far, and after the Gotham Awards made it the most-nominated movie of the year, I think it has to be considered the current frontrunner for Best Picture. It has leapfrogged Chloé Zhao's Hamnet in my own mental ranking, and with a release date of September 26, 2025, a 162-minute runtime, and a screenplay co-written by Anderson and Thomas Pynchon, it feels like the kind of ambitious, messy, thrilling work that Academy voters love when they are in the mood to reward a major studio project. But the Best Picture race is not what keeps me up at night. What interests me more is what happens to this film's actors.
A Cast That Could Contend Everywhere
One Battle After Another is full of truly great performances. From the top of the call sheet down to one-scene appearances, the film has an embarrassment of riches. Leonardo DiCaprio could contend in Best Actor. Chase Infiniti could contend in Best Actress. Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro could both contend in Best Supporting Actor. Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall could both contend in Best Supporting Actress. On paper, that is six actors in four categories. In practice, all of them breaking into their respective races is unlikely. Awards watchers will be closely following the precursors to see which performances gain the most traction, and the Gothams planted the first flag. The Gothams have two non-gendered Lead and Supporting categories with ten nominees each. DiCaprio, Penn, and Hall missed. Taylor and del Toro were both nominated in supporting, while Infiniti made the Best Breakthrough Performer category.
Given the nature of these awards, the two biggest, most-established stars not being nominated is no sign of an issue with their campaigns. DiCaprio and Penn are known quantities. They can miss a Gotham nomination and still land at the Oscars. Hall is a different story. Her performance is much quieter, and I think it will struggle to stand out in comparison to Taylor, who dominates her screen time. But I actually think the biggest sign of a future snub comes for someone who did get nominated: Chase Infiniti.
The Two Ways to Think About Awards Season
There are two main ways to conceive of the purpose of awards shows. The truly competitive one is that they should aspire to determine the best of the best. If one movie is head and shoulders above everything else in every category, so be it. The other way, which I subscribe to, is that awards exist to celebrate and platform as much great art as possible. The Gotham nominations tend to reflect the latter sensibility. It is why, for example, they upped Best Feature from five nominees to ten this year. In that spirit, it makes perfect sense why Chase Infiniti, the 25-year-old appearing in her first ever movie, would be nominated for Breakthrough Performer instead of Outstanding Lead Performance. It is well-intended, and it is likely the first of many such honors she will receive from awards bodies with a similar category.
But the Oscars do not have a breakthrough category. That is the problem. If Infiniti continues to be separated in precursors from the rest of the Best Actress pack, and that pack then solidifies without her, I fear she will be thought of in a different tier come time for Academy Award nominations. Is that fair? Is it even smart? One Battle After Another does not reach the heights it does without her excellent lead performance. If the film is the frontrunner it seems to be, she deserves to be recognized alongside other, more established actresses. The Academy should not let the existence of a breakthrough category at other shows become a reason to keep her out of the main race.
My Current Read on the Acting Races
Here is how I see the film's acting chances right now, with the caveat that precursors can change everything:
| Category | Performer | My Current Read |
|---|---|---|
| Best Actor | Leonardo DiCaprio | Still a likely nominee; Gotham miss is not damaging |
| Best Actress | Chase Infiniti | Deserves a nomination, but Breakthrough categorization risks a snub |
| Best Supporting Actor | Sean Penn | Major contender despite Gotham miss |
| Best Supporting Actor | Benicio del Toro | Gotham nominee and strong contender |
| Best Supporting Actress | Teyana Taylor | Gotham nominee who dominates her screen time |
| Best Supporting Actress | Regina Hall | Quieter performance likely to struggle |
I keep coming back to Infiniti because she is the heart of the movie. A first-time actor carrying a Paul Thomas Anderson film opposite Leonardo DiCaprio is not a small thing. She does it with a calm, lived-in intensity that makes the film's political and familial stakes feel personal. When I think about the scenes that stayed with me, many of them are hers. So why should she be relegated to a separate category just because she is new? The Oscars are supposed to reward the best performances, not the most established careers.
What I Will Be Watching
As the 2026 Oscar race continues, I will be watching the precursors closely. If DiCaprio and Penn start showing up, their Gotham omissions will be forgotten. If Taylor and del Toro keep building momentum, they could become the film's safest acting bets. But if Infiniti keeps getting routed into breakthrough and newcomer prizes while the Best Actress race hardens around veterans, I will be worried. The film is too good, and she is too central, for that outcome. One Battle After Another is a major achievement for Paul Thomas Anderson, for its cast, and for the kind of ambitious, adult-oriented cinema that rarely gets this much awards attention. I just hope the Academy sees what I see: Chase Infiniti is not just a breakthrough. She is a lead.