I did not expect a period drama based on Henrik Ibsen to rattle me this much, but here we are. I pressed play on Hedda on Prime Video one quiet night in early 2026, mostly because I had admired Tessa Thompson in Creed and as Valkyrie in the MCU. By the time the credits rolled, I was asking myself the same question over and over: how can a performance this commanding be sitting so far outside the Best Actress conversation? 🎭
Thompson plays Hedda Gabler, and from the moment she appears, she owns every corner of the frame. Hedda is not a simple victim or a villain. She is charming, witty, cold, desperate, manipulative, and quietly heartbroken all at once. I watched her slide from seductive confidence to tearful vulnerability in a breath, and it never felt forced. That kind of control is rare, and it is exactly the sort of turn that usually screams Oscar consideration.
So why does it feel like the Academy is not paying attention?
The path to a nomination for Thompson runs through Best Actress, because she is firmly the lead of Hedda. Yet she is currently not seen as a major contender for a 2026 Oscar nomination. Jessie Buckley in Hamnet remains the frontrunner, while Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value, Emma Stone in Bugonia, Cynthia Erivo in Wicked: For Good, Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You, Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee, Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love, and Chase Infiniti in One Battle After Another all occupy much stronger positions in the public conversation.
The numbers paint a grim picture if you are rooting for Thompson 😬. Variety's Clayton Davis has her in 11th place, and THR's Scott Feinberg lists her at 10th under the Possibilities section. NextBestPicture's staff does not have her in the consensus top 10 or formally in any top five. On GoldDerby, she sits 11th overall with odds of just 1.28% to be nominated, and only one expert, Shawn Edwards of WDAF-TV Fox, predicts she gets in. Betting markets are equally skeptical, with DraftKings listing her at +3500.
Still, I refuse to treat this as over. Thompson did pick up a Gotham Awards nomination for Outstanding Lead Performance. That tells me her work is not invisible. Now that Hedda is streaming and drawing more attention, could that nomination become the spark that turns a long-shot campaign into a real run? Momentum can shift quickly, especially when a studio decides to throw its weight behind a movie.
That brings me to Amazon MGM. Studio strategy often decides which deserving performances get a second look. Amazon's awards history is mixed. They helped Manchester by the Sea become the first streaming film nominated for Best Picture, and Casey Affleck won Best Actor. They also landed acting nominations for Leslie Odom Jr., Riz Ahmed, Paul Raci, Maria Bakalova, Nicole Kidman, Javier Bardem, and J.K. Simmons. But Amazon has rarely turned those nominations into wins, and they have only delivered one Best Actress Oscar nomination before.
What makes 2026 interesting is that Amazon is also handling Julia Roberts' campaign for After the Hunt. That Luca Guadagnino film has not been as beloved as expected, and the weak response has made Roberts look less likely to truly contend. With no other major awards contender on the slate, Amazon could reasonably pivot to Hedda as its best chance at the 98th Academy Awards. If the studio prioritizes Thompson, FYC screenings and post-screening Q&As could help her enter the top five.
I left Hedda convinced I had just watched one of the year's greatest performances. Whether the Academy agrees is another matter entirely. If Amazon rallies behind Thompson, she has a real chance to avoid a snub. But the clock is ticking, and in a season this crowded, great work alone does not always find a seat at the table. Will Tessa Thompson get the nomination she deserves? I want to believe the answer is yes.