The Gotham Award nominations have landed, and they have given the 2026 Oscar race an early jolt. With the 98th Academy Awards set for March 2026, the indie-focused precursor has handed One Battle After Another a record six nominations and plenty of momentum, while several other contenders got a shot in the arm and a few big names found themselves on the back foot. The Gotham Awards are not the whole ballgame, but they are one of the first real indicators of where industry heat is building — and this year the message is loud and clear: Paul Thomas Anderson's sprawling epic is the one to beat until someone proves otherwise.
🎬 One Battle After Another Takes the Inside Track
One Battle After Another set a Gotham Awards record with six nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. That is the kind of early haul that makes awards strategists sit up straight. The Leonardo DiCaprio-led film now has the look of a genuine Oscar frontrunner, and Anderson himself is firmly in the conversation for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. The narrative writes itself: Anderson is a beloved auteur who has been knocking on the Academy's door for decades, and this could be the year the door finally swings open.
The acting categories add a little spice. Chase Infiniti, Benicio Del Toro and Teyana Taylor all earned nods, which keeps the film's ensemble credentials alive. But there is a wrinkle: Infiniti was recognized for Breakout Performance rather than as a leading performer, suggesting voters may see her as a supporting player. Meanwhile, Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn did not make the cut, which takes some wind out of their individual Oscar campaigns. One Battle After Another is still the film to beat, but its acting odds are not a lock.
💥 If I Had Legs I'd Kick You Builds Real Heat
Mary Bronstein's If I Had Legs I'd Kick You was the second-biggest story of the nominations with four nods: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and Outstanding Lead Performance. For an A24 drama that thrives on chaos and anxiety, this is a serious shot in the arm. Rose Byrne has been gaining steam since her Silver Bear win at the Berlin International Film Festival, and the Gotham love keeps her firmly in the Best Actress conversation. The field is crowded, but Byrne increasingly looks like a lock.
The bigger surprise may be Bronstein. This is only her second feature as a director, and she now has a stronger foothold against heavyweights such as Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler and Chloé Zhao. Even if she misses out on a Best Director nomination at the Oscars, the Gotham nods suggest enough goodwill exists for a Best Original Screenplay nomination — and maybe even a Best Picture slot. That is no small feat for one of the year's most distinctive indies.
📊 The Big Board
| Film | Gotham showing | Oscar read |
|---|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | Record six nominations | Clear frontrunner, but acting races are tricky |
| If I Had Legs I'd Kick You | Four major nominations | Rose Byrne and Mary Bronstein are rising |
| It Was Just An Accident | Major category nods, no Best Feature | International heavyweight with staying power |
| Sentimental Value | Two supporting nods | Supporting races look good; Best Actress took a hit |
| The Smashing Machine | Zero nominations | Uphill battle after a cold shoulder |
| Marty Supreme and Is This Thing On? | Not screened in time | Dangerous wildcards with spoiler potential |
🌍 It Was Just An Accident Keeps Rolling
Jafar Panahi's It Was Just An Accident has been building momentum all year, and the Gotham nominations gave the French entry for Best International Feature Film another boost. It already had frontrunner status after winning the Palme d'Or at Cannes, and the Gotham recognition suggests real staying power with critics and prospective Academy voters. Panahi earned nods for directing and writing, which keeps him in the mix for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay.
The one sore spot is the lack of a Best Feature nomination. That makes a Parasite-style run — winning Best Picture as well as the international prize — less likely. Still, the film's timely subject matter and strong reviews make Panahi a likely multiple-category nominee. Do not count it out.
🎭 Acting Races Get a Little Clearer — and a Little Messier
The actor races are going to be tight across the board, and the Gotham Awards gave two veteran Hollywood fixtures a helpful nudge. Ethan Hawke earned a nomination for Blue Moon, where he plays an overlooked creative. Hawke is a beloved journeyman with two acting nominations and no win, so the overdue narrative is doing a lot of work here. Adam Sandler, meanwhile, got a boost for his understated turn as an industry agent in Jay Kelly. Sandler also carries the overdue label, and that could translate into his most serious Oscar push yet.
The Gotham Awards' non-gendered acting categories have four men nominated for Outstanding Lead Performance. Josh O'Connor and Lee Byung-hun are in contention but look like outsiders in a crowded field, while Wagner Moura continues to pick up steam. The acting races remain fluid, but the Hawke and Sandler narratives are gaining traction.
⚠️ Sentimental Value and The Smashing Machine Take a Hit
Sentimental Value has been a favorite among awards predictors thanks to its cast and the strength of the Norwegian drama, but the Gotham Awards dealt it a mixed hand. The film earned only two nominations, both in the Supporting Performance category. That is good news for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Stellan Skarsgård, who are expected to contend for Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor. But it is a real blow to Renate Reinsve, who was otherwise seen as a Best Actress frontrunner.
Reinsve's work is one of the film's best elements, but she faces stiff competition from Rose Byrne, Amanda Seyfried, Tessa Thompson and especially Jesse Buckley, who is currently considered the frontrunner for Hamnet. The lack of a Gotham nomination suggests Buckley may be pulling ahead.
The Smashing Machine suffered an even harsher blow. The film was relying on Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt to generate momentum, but neither received Gotham attention, and the film earned no nominations at all. If it wants to stay in the Oscar race, it needs to pick up nods elsewhere — and fast.
🃏 The Wildcards Nobody Should Ignore
Genre-heavy contenders such as Wicked: For Good and Sinners should not feel slighted by their lack of Gotham recognition; the precursor typically favors smaller, character-driven fare. The real wildcards are Marty Supreme and Is This Thing On?. Both have earned terrific reviews and look perfectly suited to the Gotham Awards' taste for grounded stories, but neither had been screened for critics when nominations were due.
That is why early awards math can be a trap. Timothée Chalamet and Will Arnett are both expected to be heavy favorites for Oscar nominations, and Chalamet is arguably a Best Actor frontrunner even without a Gotham nod. If either film lands with critics and audiences, it could upend the momentum of One Battle After Another and turn the 98th Academy Awards into a genuine dogfight.
The Gotham Awards have drawn the first real battle lines of the 2026 Oscar race. One Battle After Another has the inside track, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You has serious heat, and It Was Just An Accident remains a force to be reckoned with. But the race is a marathon, not a sprint. With wildcards lurking and acting categories still up in the air, the only safe prediction is that the road to the Dolby Theater will be anything but boring.